Based on recent modeling, Earth will likely not survive the Sun's red giant phase intact. Even if it were to survive the expansion, the increased solar radiation would make it uninhabitable.
The Fate of Earth During the Red Giant Phase
When our Sun reaches the end of its life cycle, it will expand into a red giant. This expansion will have dramatic consequences for the inner planets, including Earth. Here's a breakdown:
What Happens to the Sun
- Expansion: The Sun will expand significantly, possibly engulfing Mercury and Venus.
- Increased Energy Output: As a red giant, the Sun will emit significantly more energy, leading to intense radiation for any surviving planets.
Earth's Possible Destinies
| Scenario | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Engulfed | Earth is swallowed by the expanding Sun. |
| Orbital Shift | Earth's orbit may change, potentially leading to its destruction or making it unsuitable for life. |
| Survivable but not livable | Even if Earth somehow avoided destruction, the intense solar radiation will render it uninhabitable. |
Why Earth Will Likely Not Survive Intact
- Intense Heat: The Sun's expansion will subject Earth to extremely high temperatures.
- Atmospheric Loss: The intense radiation would strip away Earth’s atmosphere, leaving it a barren wasteland.
- Increased Radiation All planets that manage to survive would be bathed in extremely intense radiation.
Implications for the Solar System
The transition of the Sun into a red giant means significant changes for the entire solar system.
- Planetary Survival: The inner planets are at the highest risk of being engulfed, while the outer planets will experience drastically changed environments.
- End of Life as We Know It: Regardless of its survival, life as we know it on Earth will not be possible during the red giant phase.
While the details remain under study, recent modeling indicates that Earth will most likely not survive the red giant phase in a habitable state. As Mandell stated, "We'll all be long gone”.
